![]() “This war has produced uneven effects on the two sides, with millions of Ukrainians forcibly fleeing their homes and entire cities being erased from the map, and Russia remaining grossly unaffected,” he said. When asked about developments that could tip the scale in favor of Ukraine, Beissinger referenced paramilitary Russian groups fighting on Zelenskyy’s side who have conducted small-scale drone operations within Russia. ![]() The professor called for reserved optimism, though, as Ukrainian air capabilities, largely dependent on outdated Soviet-era planes, are still inferior to Russia’s modern fleet. “Thanks to the support of the US and Europe, Ukraine has achieved a clear advantage in technology, with modern anti-missile defense systems shielding civilians, German-made Leopard tanks piercing through Russian lines, and satellite-controlled high-precision missiles targeting the enemy’s supply lines.” Most importantly, though, “Ukrainian troops are determined, and know what they are fighting for, while the average Russian is confused and demoralized.” The plummeting Russian morale is also a result of the poor treatment of Russian soldiers, who, according to Beissinger, are treated as cannon fodder. “Besides resulting in an enormous loss of human life, the incident creates an extremely volatile and dangerous situation at the neighboring Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.” Citing reports that estimate a rapid collapse of the reservoir, Beissinger warned of a potentially catastrophic nuclear meltdown as the facility’s cooling water reserves are depleted.Īlthough the counteroffensive is facing turbulence, and Ukraine remains at a de facto numerical disadvantage – outnumbered five to one by Russia – Beissinger asked us to not neglect the aces up President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s sleeve. The professor also warned of major humanitarian, environmental and nuclear repercussions. “The water and subsequent flooding are preventing the Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro River, making their advance to the Kherson region more onerous,” he says. The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam on Tuesday, which Beissinger is convinced was orchestrated by the Kremlin, will thwart the growing counteroffensive. Ukraine’s position is that as long as numerous ceasefire violations by Moscow-supported separatists in eastern Ukraine continue to occur, it is impossible to talk about political decentralisation of Donetsk and Lugansk, and local elections.The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southeast, launched last week, was supposed to usher in a new phase of the conflict. The EU placed friendly pressure on Kyiv to deliver on the Minsk agreements. On 2 October 2015, the leaders of the Normandy format admitted that it would take time to organise elections in Ukraine which respect international standards and as a result, the so-called Minsk peace process would run into next year. On 2 March 2015, European leaders said that they agreed that the OSCE needed a broader role as observers of the ceasefire, and weapons removal. The four leaders committed to respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to a joint declaration. Talks continued in Minsk, and a follow-up to the Minsk Protocol was agreed to on 19 September 2014.Ī new package of measures meant to stop fighting in the Donbass, called " Minsk II", was agreed to on 12 February 2015 by the between the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine (the so-called Normandy format), after 17 hour of negotiations. ![]() In the two weeks after the Minsk Protocol was signed, there were frequent violations of the ceasefire by both parties to the conflict. ![]() The agreement was drawn-up by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE. A deal to establish a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine, called the Minsk Protocol, was signed on 5 September 2014. ![]()
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